update (for future reference of anyone looking into this)-- i went ahead and ordered an ultimaker 1 kit directly from ultimaker last thursday night (2013-12-05) and it arrived last night (2013-12-09).
the total cost was $1,664.52 (from my credit card statement; this includes shipping by DHL and currency exchange, which is offered as a free service by my credit card). no import tariffs were imposed, and california state sales tax was not assessed.
this compares to $1699.99 from makershed, which is *before* shipping or CA state sales tax (i think it was like ~1850 when i priced it the other day).
also worth mentioning: i have been very pleased with the responsiveness of ultimaker customer service, who have promptly answered my question about shipping, etc.
All this is for an ultimaker 1 kit, obviously the situation may be different for an assembled UM1 or UM2. and of course prices may change, your may have different luck with customs, etc, so YMMV. but so far, my experience ordering from Ultimaker to california has been good. now i just have to finish building it... :-)